MarketsFarm held a webinar Thursday to discuss the war in Ukraine.
Bruce Burnett is Director of Markets and Weather.
"The major agricultural regions of Ukraine are essentially in the war zone. Ukraine grows mostly a soft white and red wheat, depending on what area they're in. It's a soft wheat so it's not particularly exchangeable with CWRS in terms of the people who would buy this but it certainly will impact the market," said Burnett. "Wheat production this year is going to be down at least one third from last year. I would say probably sub 20 million tons in terms of production. Last year they produced 33 million tons. This is going to have a major impact on next year's wheat situation. Exports from the Ukraine are going to be extremely limited, especially if this war goes on longer because nothing is being shipped out of Ukrainian ports. They are exporting some by rail, that's going to be a relatively small market. They've obviously got other things on their mind, other than exporting grains right at the present moment."
Burnett says MarketsFarm believes the war is probably going to continue longer than the market currently believes, noting many experts thought the invasion would be over by now.
He add Russia won't suffer the same production difficulties, however exports will be limited or restricted due to sanctions.